Booking pace measures how fast future nights are filling compared with a reference at the same lead time, usually the same point last year or the current market. Pace = nights on the books now ÷ reference nights on the books at the same days before arrival, minus 1. Pickup is the number of nights (or revenue) added over a recent period, such as the last 7 or 14 days. 45% on the books against 40% last year is +12.5% pace.
In hotels and in vacation rentals
- Hotels: pace reports compare on-the-books (OTB) room-nights and revenue for future dates against same time last year (STLY), budget and forecast. Pickup reports show change since the last report.
- Vacation rentals: PriceLabs describes pacing as comparing your occupancy, ADR and RevPAR with “the same period last year, or the current local market” (PriceLabs). Because portfolios change size year to year, occupancy-based pace (percent of available nights) is safer than raw nights.
Formulas
- On-the-books occupancy (OTB) = nights booked for the target period ÷ available nights in that period
- Pace vs last year = OTB occupancy now ÷ OTB occupancy at the same lead time last year − 1
- Pace vs market = your OTB occupancy ÷ market OTB occupancy (this is forward MPI)
- Pickup (n days) = nights on the books today − nights on the books n days ago
- Pickup vs expectation = actual pickup ÷ expected pickup − 1
Index = yours ÷ market × 100. Above 100 beats the market. Some reports show it as a ratio: 95.3 is 0.953.
Worked example 1: pace vs last year
For December, a 20-listing portfolio has 620 available nights (20 × 31). Today, 60 days before December 1, it has 279 nights booked.
- OTB occupancy = 279 ÷ 620 = 45%
- At the same lead time last year, with 15 listings and 465 available nights (15 × 31), it had 186 booked: 186 ÷ 465 = 40%
- Pace vs last year = 45 ÷ 40 − 1 = +12.5%
Comparing raw nights (279 vs 186, +50%) would have overstated pace, because the portfolio grew.
Worked example 2: pickup vs expectation
Over the last 14 days, a listing picked up 8 nights for the next 90 days. Based on the market’s booking curve, a listing like it would be expected to pick up 7.0 nights.
- Pickup vs expectation = 8 ÷ 7.0 − 1 = +14%
How to read pace
| Pace vs last year | Pace vs market | Usually means | What to try |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ahead | Ahead | Demand and your pricing are both working | Raise rates on remaining nights, starting furthest out |
| Ahead | In line | The whole market is up | Not your doing; hold rates in line with the market |
| Behind | In line | The market is down | Do not chase last year’s rates; watch market ADR |
| Behind | Behind | You are losing share | Check rate (ADR index), minimum stay and listing visibility |
PriceLabs makes the same point: pacing ahead of last year when the whole market is up “doesn’t mean you’re doing anything differently” (PriceLabs).
Pace by booking window
Pace should be split by how far away the dates are, because each window has a different fix. An illustrative morning:
| Window | Your OTB | Market OTB | Forward MPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next 14 days | 82% | 78% | 1.05 |
| Next 30 days | 71% | 66% | 1.08 |
| Days 31-60 | 44% | 38% | 1.16 |
| Days 61-90 | 25% | 22% | 1.14 |
- 0-14 days: little time left. Only rate and minimum stay can move it. Avoid deep last-minute cuts that teach guests to wait.
- 15-30 days: the main lever for gap nights and shorter stays.
- 31-90 days: where most pricing upside sits. Being well ahead here with an ADR index below 1.00 means far-out rates are too low.
- 90+ days: event and holiday dates. Set rates early, before the first bookings anchor them.
Booking window: the companion metric
Average booking window is “the average number of days between the day of reservation and check-in” (PriceLabs glossary). It tells you how far ahead pace becomes meaningful. In a market where guests book a median 45 days ahead, being behind at 60 days is a warning. In a market that books 10 days ahead, it is noise. Market booking-window figures should come from a dated source; our market reports will include them.
Distortions to check
- Portfolio growth: use occupancy, not raw nights.
- Shifted holidays and events: Easter and some events move dates, so align by event, not calendar date.
- Long stays: one 30-night booking can make a month look far ahead.
- Blocks: owner blocks added late reduce available nights and inflate OTB occupancy.
- Cancellations: use net OTB (after cancellations), and track the cancellation rate separately.
How we use pace
Our software calculates pace and forward MPI for every listing every morning across four booking windows. It also compares nights booked over the last 14 days with what the market curve predicts. Listings that fall behind trigger a recommendation, which is checked for distortions and approved by a revenue manager before it goes live. To see where your portfolio stands, start with a free revenue audit.
FAQ
What is booking pace?
How fast future nights are filling compared with last year or the market at the same lead time. 45% on the books against 40% last year is +12.5% pace.
What is the difference between pace and pickup?
Pace compares your total on the books with a reference. Pickup is how much you added over a recent period, such as nights booked in the last 7 days.
What is a pace report in a hotel?
A report of on-the-books room-nights, ADR and revenue for future dates, compared with same time last year, budget and forecast.
How often should I check pace?
Daily for the next 90 days in a portfolio of 15+ listings. Weekly is the minimum.
Should I drop prices if I am behind pace?
Only after checking the market. If the market is behind too, cutting rate mostly gives away revenue. Check ADR index and minimum stay first.
Related: MPI · ADR · RevPAR · Market reports · When to hire a revenue manager